Decades of Dominance: Oil to Hold 30% Global Energy Share in 2035

Oil is projected to retain a 30% share of the primary global energy supply in 2035, underscoring its decades-long dominance, according to BP’s latest annual outlook. This sustained reliance, coupled with increased long-term demand forecasts for oil and gas, is the reason BP suggests the world will not meet the crucial 2050 net-zero emissions target.
BP’s revised figures indicate a prolonged reliance on hydrocarbons. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to hit 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is similarly forecast to remain elevated at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, BP has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now projecting 103 million b/d in 2030.
The primary factor driving this persistent demand is the global prioritization of national energy security, amplified by geopolitical conflicts. BP’s chief economist points to the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and trade tariffs as key pressures compelling nations to secure domestic supplies. This pressure for self-sufficiency risks encouraging reliance on domestically produced fossil fuels, even as it creates an incentive for some countries to accelerate towards low-carbon ‘electrostates.’
The report warns that the current slow pace of transition has severe climate implications. BP’s modeling shows that the world is on a trajectory to breach the cumulative 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company cautions that this extended delay significantly increases the economic and social costs required for future climate mitigation. To meet the 2050 net-zero goal, BP states that oil demand must drop aggressively to about 35 million b/d by that date.
Despite the rapid expansion of renewables—projected to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035—oil will remain the largest single energy source, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are set to rise from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035 but are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s, illustrating the formidable inertia in the energy system.